Sat, Dec 2, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 08 | 111 | 227 |
| TBL | 015 | 116 | 412 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:58SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Danny O'Regan, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 0:27TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 1:39TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Mikhail Sergachev · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 5:49TBLTyler JohnsonGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 11:01TBLCory ConacherAssists: Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 13:37SJSJustin BraunAssists: Danny O'Regan · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 15:37TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:58SJSBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P2 9:01TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:56SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Goodrow – O'Regan – Carpenter11:20
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier13:13
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Hansen – Tierney – Labanc13:27
xG 0.32–0.55 (36%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Ward – Couture – Hertl13:34
xG 0.11–1.00 (10%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- DeMelo – Ryan14:13
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun14:59
xG 0.27–0.77 (26%)attempts 10–21goals 1–2
- Burns – Dillon20:38
xG 0.29–0.91 (24%)attempts 24–22goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Johnson – Namestnikov17:19
xG 1.18–0.14 (89%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Brown12:09
xG 0.49–0.21 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point14:40
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Killorn – Conacher – Gourde8:01
xG 0.45–0.44 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Koekkoek14:04
xG 1.04–0.33 (76%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Hedman – Sustr19:03
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
- Stralman – Sergachev16:16
xG 0.80–0.52 (60%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).