Sat, Dec 2, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 014 | 111 | 136 |
| VAN | 217 | 03 | 06 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52VANMarkus GranlundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:14VANAlexander EdlerGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 17:08TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Morgan Rielly, Andreas Borgman · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:20VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:10VANNikolay Goldobin: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:05TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Brown – Matthews4:12
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Marner7:44
xG 0.36–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – van Riemsdyk – Brown8:15
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Marleau – van Riemsdyk – Marner5:04
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly15:29
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Polak – Borgman10:07
xG 0.48–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev16:32
xG 0.80–0.72 (53%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Gaunce – Virtanen8:49
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Vanek – Gagner – Baertschi8:27
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser4:34
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Horvat – Goldobin – Boeser6:30
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Pouliot3:05
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hutton – Stecher12:49
xG 0.29–0.43 (40%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Pouliot17:07
xG 0.52–0.79 (40%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).