Sat, Dec 2, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 04 | 020 | 214 | 01 | 239 |
| CAR | 119 | 011 | 110 | 17 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:02CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 4:52FLANick BjugstadAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 8:17CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 18:04FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–2
- OT 4:58CARNoah HanifinGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 1:12FLAAleksander Barkov: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:46FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:05FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:25CARBrock McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:25FLAJared McCann: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:42FLAMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:42CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:42FLAMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:42CARJustin Faulk: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:42CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:01FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:18CARNoah Hanifin: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:18FLADerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:26CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:24FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:06CARBrock McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:06FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against McCann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Huberdeau – Barkov10:08
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley5:41
xG 0.35–0.18 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Hunt – Malgin9:15
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – McCann11:30
xG 0.37–1.55 (19%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad16:09
xG 0.64–0.53 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Petrovic – McCoshen12:25
xG 0.56–0.67 (45%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson13:30
xG 0.43–1.07 (29%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Rask – McGinn9:33
xG 1.25–0.20 (86%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Skinner – Lindholm – Ryan6:47
xG 0.36–0.14 (71%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris7:17
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho2:17
xG 0.14–0.08 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin9:05
xG 1.29–0.26 (83%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fleury14:49
xG 1.03–0.58 (64%)attempts 20–20goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury3:41
xG 0.09–0.10 (45%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).