Sat, Dec 2, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 016 | 16 | 111 | 02 | 0 | 235 |
| NSH | 09 | 19 | 116 | 01 | 2 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:00NSHKevin FialaPPAssists: Colton Sissons, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 12:44ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 5:01ANACam FowlerAssists: Corey Perry, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 11:17NSHCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 2. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 3. NSH Kevin Fiala scored
- 4. ANA Adam Henrique stopped
- 5. NSH Kyle Turris scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:12ANAAndrew Cogliano: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:12NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:49NSHP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P1 11:28ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:28NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:20ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:07ANAJoseph Blandisi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:07ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:07NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:00ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:18NSHRyan Johansen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:13ANAChris Wagner: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Ritchie – Kase10:28
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Blandisi11:03
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Wagner – Roy11:10
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Grant – Shaw – Rasmussen4:55
xG 0.04–0.21 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Montour9:26
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm14:23
xG 0.40–0.46 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler2:23
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala13:33
xG 0.82–0.11 (88%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- McLeod – Watson – Gaudreau4:12
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson6:03
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons4:56
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ekholm18:20
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Irwin – Bitetto10:44
xG 0.53–0.61 (47%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban15:00
xG 0.20–0.52 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).