Sat, Dec 2, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 7, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 316 | 211 | 26 | 733 |
| CGY | 113 | 08 | 413 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:29EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Drake Caggiula, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 14:33EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Eric Gryba, Milan Lucic · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 16:21CGYMichael FrolikSHAssists: Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 17:44EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: Kris Russell, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 3:40EDMMark LetestuSHAssists: Zack Kassian · Snap, 0.19 xG4–1
- P2 19:38EDMMilan LucicAssists: Eric Gryba, Oscar Klefbom · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–1
- P3 1:29EDMPatrick MaroonGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG6–1
- P3 5:04CGYSam BennettAssists: Mark Jankowski, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.02 xG6–2
- P3 8:13CGYMicheal FerlandPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–3
- P3 11:39CGYSam BennettUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–4
- P3 12:20CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Dougie Hamilton, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–5
- P3 18:59EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Milan Lucic, Michael Cammalleri · Backhand, 0.01 xG7–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:22EDMMatt Benning: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 4:33CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:16EDMOscar Klefbom: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 11:22CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:40CGYGarnet Hathaway: Holding2 min
- P2 2:29EDMKris Russell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:47EDMPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:00EDMMark Letestu: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins8:16
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Strome – Draisaitl – Caggiula10:59
xG 0.51–0.36 (58%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:29
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Khaira7:38
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse13:07
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Klefbom – Benning12:53
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Benning – Auvitu2:30
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Brouwer – Hathaway3:25
xG 0.10–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Gaudreau – Monahan4:18
xG 0.10–0.12 (47%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:59
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Jagr – Jankowski – Bennett7:46
xG 0.05–0.20 (21%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Stone7:13
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Brodie – Hamilton4:37
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 3–1
- Hamonic – Kulak4:07
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).