Sun, Dec 3, 2017·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 0, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 03 | 09 | 09 | 021 |
| WPG | 219 | 38 | 022 | 549 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20WPGMark ScheifelePPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 6:00WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Jacob Trouba, Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 3:18WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 6:20WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 6:50WPGTyler MyersPPAssists: Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault · Slap, 0.05 xG0–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:06OTTBobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 10:40OTTAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:43WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:36OTTDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57OTTRyan Dzingel: Abusive language2 min · PPG
- P2 14:20WPGNikolaj Ehlers: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:31WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:35OTTNate Thompson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Brassard – Stone3:30
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Duchene – Dzingel2:40
xG 0.04–0.02 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Dzingel – Pageau2:55
xG 0.01–0.01 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Hoffman – Duchene3:32
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Ceci5:34
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Oduya – Claesson3:25
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Oduya – Karlsson2:18
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Tanev9:57
xG 0.69–0.09 (88%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Perreault – Scheifele10:46
xG 0.70–0.28 (72%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Matthias – Armia9:38
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine10:49
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Kulikov11:05
xG 0.84–0.27 (76%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey14:51
xG 0.83–0.35 (71%)attempts 19–16goals 2–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot16:40
xG 0.55–0.78 (41%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).