Sun, Dec 3, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 7, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 25 | 212 | 311 | 728 |
| COL | 011 | 28 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:44DALTyler SeguinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 19:10DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 0:39COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 6:48DALJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Devin Shore, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 7:52DALGreg PaterynAssists: Alexander Radulov, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.01 xG4–1
- P2 12:45COLBlake ComeauAssists: Matt Nieto, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 4:02DALBrett RitchieAssists: Curtis McKenzie · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–2
- P3 17:24DALDevin ShoreENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.55 xG6–2
- P3 18:10DALBrett RitchieAssists: Radek Faksa, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.13 xG7–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:42COLAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:19COLJ.T. Compher: Holding2 min
- P2 15:43DALBrett Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:48COLBlake Comeau: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 8:16DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:34COLSven Andrighetto: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:50DALRadek Faksa: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMcKenzie – Ritchie – Smith5:14
xG 0.84–0.10 (90%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin11:37
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 3–1
- Pitlick – Faksa – Elie10:20
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Shore – Janmark8:55
xG 0.22–0.33 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell15:06
xG 1.18–0.47 (71%)attempts 15–20goals 2–1
- Johns – Honka10:26
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn16:30
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 6–19goals 2–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:32
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto8:51
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 12–4goals 1–2
- Bourque – Yakupov – Toninato6:14
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Jost8:11
xG 0.15–0.70 (18%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Lindholm8:48
xG 0.31–0.06 (85%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard11:06
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Johnson – Lindholm3:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).