Mon, Dec 4, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 5, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 314 | 08 | 02 | 1 | 532 |
| FLA | 111 | 219 | 110 | 03 | 0 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25FLANick BjugstadAssists: Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:51NYIAnders LeeAssists: Calvin de Haan, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 5:35NYIThomas HickeyAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 8:45FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 10:34FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 16:19NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 18:21NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 5:06FLADenis MalginAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jamie McGinn · Snap, 0.19 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 3. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 5. NYI Mathew Barzal scored
- 6. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:33NYIJaroslav Halak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:25FLAMike Matheson: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:43NYIJordan Eberle: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:48NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:44NYICal Clutterbuck: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:44NYICal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 12:29FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Quine6:34
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee12:39
xG 0.40–0.40 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal9:30
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Nelson – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier10:38
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy16:18
xG 0.47–0.31 (61%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Hickey – Pulock14:24
xG 0.40–0.56 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- de Haan – Pelech13:31
xG 0.45–0.64 (41%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Trocheck – Malgin11:42
xG 0.79–0.38 (68%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Huberdeau – Barkov13:27
xG 0.30–0.19 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley5:55
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Brickley – McCann10:10
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – McCoshen14:31
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Yandle – Ekblad18:16
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Matheson16:04
xG 0.60–0.64 (48%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).