Mon, Dec 4, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 37 | 16 | 521 |
| CGY | 114 | 121 | 010 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:15CGYTroy BrouwerAssists: Curtis Lazar, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 19:16PHIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Jakub Voracek, Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 7:31PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Michael Raffl · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 7:56PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 8:42PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–1
- P2 18:45CGYSean MonahanAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 1:51PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Jordan Weal, Taylor Leier · Wrist, 0.36 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:39CGYMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P2 4:36PHIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:32CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:58PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:58CGYTravis Hamonic: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Laughton – Leier10:03
xG 0.65–0.15 (81%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl14:08
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Couturier12:13
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Weise – Konecny – Patrick5:27
xG 0.02–0.90 (2%)attempts 2–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov15:43
xG 1.45–0.69 (68%)attempts 10–23goals 2–0
- Manning – Hagg4:44
xG 0.12–0.08 (58%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Manning2:20
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Jankowski – Bennett10:00
xG 0.64–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Lazar – Hathaway6:38
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:41
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan9:25
xG 0.36–0.80 (31%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton19:15
xG 1.14–0.97 (54%)attempts 22–11goals 1–2
- Hamonic – Brodie13:35
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Stone – Brodie4:13
xG 0.02–0.12 (15%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).