Tue, Dec 5, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 213 | 18 | 430 |
| MTL | 17 | 16 | 112 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:28MTLJordie BennAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Daniel Carr · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 2:32STLScottie UpshallAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 2:39STLBrayden SchennAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 17:04MTLShea WeberAssists: Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 6:34MTLShea WeberAssists: Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 12:11STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:35MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:54STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:25MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:58MTLByron Froese: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:21STLScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21MTLPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21MTLAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21STLKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Froese
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Brodziak – Jaskin8:27
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Stastny – Sobotka – Tarasenko11:26
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Blais10:09
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Steen – Schenn – Schwartz10:14
xG 0.23–0.69 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Bortuzzo13:09
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:03
xG 0.92–0.81 (53%)attempts 21–20goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Parayko17:00
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Hudon7:17
xG 0.85–0.71 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
- Pacioretty – Shaw – Danault13:21
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Deslauriers – Froese – Carr7:21
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Hudon – Carr2:06
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Alzner13:21
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 0–2
- Weber – Benn11:07
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Benn – Mete5:30
xG 0.03–0.04 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).