Tue, Dec 5, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 5, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 413 | 07 | 532 |
| DAL | 010 | 021 | 214 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:49NSHKevin FialaPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:48NSHCody McLeodAssists: Alexei Emelin, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 4:26NSHPontus AbergGWGAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 7:34NSHKyle TurrisPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
- P2 15:06NSHCalle JarnkrokSHAssists: Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–0
- P3 1:27DALStephen JohnsAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.02 xG5–1
- P3 19:18DALJamie OleksiakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:03NSHNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:17DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:30NSHAnthony Bitetto: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:30DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:43DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 2:43NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:18DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:25NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:00DALMattias Janmark: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:40DALDan Hamhuis: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:40NSHRoman Josi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Bonino – Sissons – Arvidsson10:16
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- McLeod – Watson – Gaudreau10:15
xG 0.54–0.71 (43%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Aberg – Forsberg11:46
xG 0.14–0.47 (22%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala11:11
xG 0.60–1.00 (37%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Weber – Bitetto14:52
xG 0.46–0.66 (41%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Josi – Ekholm13:27
xG 0.15–0.91 (14%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
- Emelin – Subban17:27
xG 0.51–1.63 (24%)attempts 10–26goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Janmark2:57
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin9:17
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – McKenzie – Ritchie2:36
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Elie10:54
xG 0.87–0.72 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell15:36
xG 1.23–0.31 (80%)attempts 25–8goals 0–0
- Johns – Oleksiak13:02
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn16:58
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).