Tue, Dec 5, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 05 | 013 | 030 |
| VAN | 03 | 210 | 19 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:58VANDerrick PouliotGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 13:50VANThomas VanekPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Derrick Pouliot · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 6:26VANNikolay GoldobinAssists: Bo Horvat, Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:15VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:31CARJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:55VANBen Hutton: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:11CARJosh Jooris: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:50CARMarcus Kruger: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Lindholm – Ryan4:40
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho4:59
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris5:35
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Rask – McGinn12:01
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce17:53
xG 0.67–0.17 (80%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fleury16:32
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin14:00
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Goldobin – Boeser9:12
xG 0.70–0.30 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Granlund – Gaunce – Virtanen12:50
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson8:41
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Vanek – Gagner – Baertschi11:48
xG 0.10–0.55 (16%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Pouliot18:05
xG 1.07–0.40 (73%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Hutton – Stecher13:00
xG 0.13–0.55 (19%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev17:30
xG 0.37–0.82 (31%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).