Tue, Dec 5, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 28 | 05 | 221 |
| LAK | 011 | 19 | 48 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:30MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Chris Stewart, Daniel Winnik · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 14:24LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Drew Doughty, Nicholas Shore · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 15:34MINTyler EnnisAssists: Zack Mitchell, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P3 4:35LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 12:38LAKAdrian KempeGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Drew Doughty · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 14:00LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:04LAKAnze KopitarENAssists: Alec Martinez, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:14MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:14LAKKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:27MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:23MINMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:58LAKAlec Martinez: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:56MINEric Staal: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Ennis – Mitchell9:36
xG 0.67–0.15 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Foligno – Niederreiter9:48
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund13:31
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Winnik – Stewart – Coyle8:33
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Murphy16:30
xG 0.80–0.41 (66%)attempts 14–19goals 1–2
- Suter – Dumba19:18
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Prosser – Reilly10:46
xG 0.19–0.17 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Brown – Kopitar7:38
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo8:37
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lewis – Shore – Iafallo3:59
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Shore – Pearson3:43
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort2:27
xG 0.39–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Martinez – Forbort5:38
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Folin2:52
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).