Wed, Dec 6, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Calgary Flames 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 114 | 012 | 017 | 05 | 1 | 148 |
| TOR | 012 | 19 | 07 | 01 | 2 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:37CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 18:47TORMorgan RiellyUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 2. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 3. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 4. CGY Matthew Tkachuk scored
- 5. TOR Patrick Marleau stopped
- 6. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 7. TOR William Nylander scored
- 8. CGY Mikael Backlund stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:27TORMatt Martin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:18CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:48CGYDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:00CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Interference2 min
- P2 19:25TORJake Gardiner: Cross checking2 min
- OT 4:28CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan14:02
xG 0.94–0.19 (83%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Stajan – Brouwer – Lazar7:23
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett9:14
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk14:21
xG 0.56–0.93 (38%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton16:26
xG 0.98–0.36 (73%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Stone – Kulak12:27
xG 0.89–0.41 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie16:04
xG 0.73–0.68 (52%)attempts 21–24goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Nylander3:36
xG 0.43–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Komarov – Martin2:18
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews10:15
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:15
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev17:20
xG 0.69–0.52 (57%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- Polak – Borgman12:17
xG 0.44–1.07 (29%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly12:45
xG 0.34–0.99 (25%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).