Wed, Dec 6, 2017·Capital One Arena, Washington
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 116 | 016 | 17 | 239 |
| WSH | 311 | 16 | 28 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:53WSHTom WilsonAssists: Christian Djoos, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 15:22WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
- P1 17:54CHILance BoumaAssists: Connor Murphy, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–3
- P2 18:32WSHBrett ConnollyPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 10:23WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 16:18CHIJonathan ToewsUnassisted · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–5
- P3 17:40WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P2 5:10WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:48WSHTom Wilson: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:19CHILance Bouma: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:40CHIRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:40CHIRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:00WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P3 12:56WSHBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:18CHIRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:18WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:16WSHMadison Bowey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBouma – Schmaltz – DeBrincat9:04
xG 0.76–0.03 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Toews – Panik – Hayden3:14
xG 0.15–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Hayden – Hartman7:59
xG 0.22–0.15 (58%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Sharp – Wingels – Panik4:55
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Murphy12:30
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Keith – Franson12:26
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 23–5goals 0–2
- Franson – Murphy2:01
xG 0.02–0.01 (51%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson11:31
xG 1.04–0.16 (87%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson7:54
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Kuznetsov – Vrana11:08
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Boyd8:37
xG 0.13–0.44 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov13:22
xG 1.08–0.57 (65%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Orlov – Bowey2:19
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson8:02
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).