Wed, Dec 6, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 013 | 213 | 27 | 433 |
| EDM | 07 | 19 | 110 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:41EDMLeon DraisaitlSHAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 8:53PHIJordan WealPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 14:45PHIDale WeiseAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 4:06PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 13:20EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–2
- P3 19:21PHIWayne SimmondsENAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:33EDMMatt Benning: Holding2 min
- P1 12:43EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P2 2:08EDMPatrick Maroon: Interference2 min
- P2 5:11PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:49EDMOscar Klefbom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:17PHIScott Laughton: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Voracek – Raffl10:25
xG 0.45–0.30 (59%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Weal – Laughton – Leier8:37
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Couturier13:11
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Weise – Konecny – Patrick4:41
xG 0.04–0.33 (11%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Hagg12:23
xG 0.46–0.61 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov19:48
xG 0.40–0.63 (39%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Alt – Sanheim9:19
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins9:57
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Letestu – Kassian – Khaira8:09
xG 0.46–0.28 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi8:07
xG 0.11–0.08 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Draisaitl – Caggiula7:37
xG 0.12–0.15 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse16:10
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Gryba – Auvitu9:16
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Klefbom – Benning11:31
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).