Thu, Dec 7, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 113 | 26 | 01 | 326 |
| PIT | 115 | 07 | 27 | 13 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:17PITKris LetangPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:53NYIJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Pulock, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 7:29PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 8:01PITRiley SheahanAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 15:07NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Scott Mayfield, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 18:50NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Andrew Ladd, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- OT 1:29PITMatt HunwickGWGAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:03PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:04NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:37PITConor Sheary: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:52PITMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:02PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:41NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rowney won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas7:18
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Nelson – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier7:45
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal10:35
xG 0.49–0.78 (39%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:55
xG 0.19–1.14 (14%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pulock16:16
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Hickey – Mayfield13:22
xG 0.43–0.74 (36%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- de Haan – Pelech14:19
xG 0.42–1.18 (26%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Guentzel13:46
xG 0.96–0.43 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Sheary5:00
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Hagelin – Sheahan4:19
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Kuhnhackl – Rowney4:44
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin14:31
xG 1.12–0.52 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Cole – Ruhwedel11:56
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Maatta13:44
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).