Thu, Dec 7, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 110 | 013 | 112 | 12 | 337 |
| MTL | 114 | 110 | 012 | 01 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31CGYSean MonahanAssists: Micheal Ferland, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:36MTLDaniel CarrAssists: Byron Froese, Nicolas Deslauriers · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:10MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Max Pacioretty, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 7:49CGYGarnet HathawayAssists: Sam Bennett, Brett Kulak · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:14CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:34CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:20MTLJordie Benn: Interference2 min
- P3 3:26MTLKarl Alzner: Interference2 min
- P3 11:46MTLAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:47MTLPhillip Danault: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Hathaway – Bennett10:14
xG 0.70–0.10 (88%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:47
xG 0.94–0.54 (63%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Stajan – Hamilton – Lazar5:12
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Frolik – Backlund12:14
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kulak9:54
xG 0.64–0.15 (81%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Giordano – Hamilton16:44
xG 0.94–0.74 (56%)attempts 21–26goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Brodie18:11
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 17–21goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Shaw – Danault13:42
xG 0.80–0.26 (75%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – Carr8:08
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon11:27
xG 0.56–0.89 (39%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
- Byron – Galchenyuk – de la Rose7:15
xG 0.12–0.51 (19%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Jerabek14:26
xG 0.80–0.44 (65%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Petry – Alzner16:24
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 25–18goals 1–0
- Weber – Benn14:04
xG 0.55–1.38 (28%)attempts 20–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).