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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 7, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise

Winnipeg Jets 4, Florida Panthers 6

Away

Winnipeg Jets

4

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.

FLA winsWPG wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WPG29112118439
FLA21511239636

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:48FLAMark PysykAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Micheal Haley · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:17FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–2
  3. P1 15:13WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Patrik Laine, Ben Chiarot · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P1 17:43WPGAdam LowryAssists: Brandon Tanev · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
  5. P2 4:46WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
  6. P2 15:47FLADenis MalginAssists: Colton Sceviour, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
  7. P3 0:48FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.31 xG3–4
  8. P3 1:51WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
  9. P3 9:58FLAMicheal HaleyGWGAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–5
  10. P3 19:49FLAVincent TrocheckENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–6
Penalties (13)
  1. P2 2:40FLADryden Hunt: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 3:27FLADerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 9:34WPGBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 16:23FLAJared McCann: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 17:40WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 19:53WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 5:38FLAJared McCann: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P3 6:24FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 12:16FLAJared McCann: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 15:56FLAMike Matheson: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 18:09FLAMark Pysyk: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 18:09WPGBrandon Tanev: Slashing2 min · PPG
  13. P3 18:57WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WPG00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
46% to win54% to win
← WPG attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Scheifele
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WPGFLA
39Shots on goal36
3.8Expected goals4.7
68Shot attempts53
44Faceoffs won28
7Power plays4
10Penalty minutes16
24Hits30
8Blocked shots12
7Giveaways9
5Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Winnipeg Jets

Forward lines

  1. bestLittle – Ehlers – Laine9:35

    xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0

  2. Lowry – Copp – Tanev11:43

    xG 0.55–0.68 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0

  3. Hendricks – Perreault – Armia5:02

    xG 0.04–0.28 (13%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2

  4. Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor12:59

    xG 0.52–0.96 (35%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestChiarot – Trouba7:21

    xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 3–1

  2. Byfuglien – Morrissey8:29

    xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1

  3. Byfuglien – Chiarot5:04

    xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestMacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley6:49

    xG 0.80–0.14 (85%)attempts 7–1goals 2–1

  2. Bjugstad – Huberdeau – Barkov10:03

    xG 0.84–0.44 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0

  3. McGinn – Sceviour – Malgin2:25

    xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 1–4goals 1–1

  4. Vrbata – McCann – Hunt7:23

    xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestYandle – Ekblad13:56

    xG 1.48–0.56 (73%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0

  2. Petrovic – McCoshen15:19

    xG 0.92–0.44 (68%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1

  3. Pysyk – Matheson12:28

    xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 12–10goals 3–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 4.7 xGWPG 3.8 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAWPG

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.

Excitement 97/100 · #54 of 1271 this seasonSwing 2.40 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
WPG 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.

FLA winsWPG wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − WPG), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).