Thu, Dec 7, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 25 | 19 | 426 |
| VAN | 015 | 113 | 09 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:08PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 0:45PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 9:52PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 19:40VANBrock BoeserAssists: Sven Baertschi, Michael Del Zotto · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–1
- P3 18:58PHIWayne SimmondsENAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:34PHIJordan Weal: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:35VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:56VANDaniel Sedin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:59VANAlexander Edler: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:41VANSven Baertschi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:06PHITaylor Leier: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:22VANJake Virtanen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:19VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Voracek – Raffl9:39
xG 0.71–0.04 (95%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Couturier11:43
xG 0.37–0.68 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Weal – Laughton – Leier8:05
xG 0.01–0.47 (3%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
- Weise – Konecny – Patrick5:29
xG 0.00–0.50 (0%)attempts 0–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Hagg10:17
xG 0.65–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Alt – Sanheim11:25
xG 0.13–0.45 (23%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov15:51
xG 0.51–0.86 (37%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Baertschi – Boeser5:58
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson5:01
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Granlund – Gaunce – Virtanen5:13
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Burmistrov – Goldobin – Boeser3:49
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Pouliot16:58
xG 0.93–0.44 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Hutton – Stecher12:08
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev12:55
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).