Thu, Dec 7, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Ottawa Senators 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 116 | 110 | 114 | 00 | 340 |
| LAK | 111 | 113 | 113 | 11 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:41LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 16:24OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 5:18LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 8:08OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Ben Harpur, Gabriel Dumont · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 16:32LAKDustin BrownAssists: Christian Folin, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:50OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Matt Duchene, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–3
- OT 0:32LAKDrew DoughtyGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:41OTTJohnny Oduya: Interference2 min
- P1 9:24LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P1 15:24LAKDerek Forbort: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:24LAKTorrey Mitchell: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:20LAKKurtis MacDermid: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Duchene – Dzingel8:02
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Dumont – Pageau8:18
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Pyatt5:07
xG 0.35–0.38 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone8:50
xG 0.16–0.64 (20%)attempts 9–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Harpur2:16
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Ceci – Chabot2:42
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Oduya – Karlsson2:31
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Shore – Pearson8:48
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:40
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Mitchell – Brodzinski5:24
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Lewis – Kempe7:40
xG 0.21–0.54 (28%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Folin13:34
xG 0.50–0.13 (80%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty16:02
xG 0.93–0.67 (58%)attempts 22–19goals 1–0
- Martinez – Folin3:27
xG 0.10–0.02 (80%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).