Fri, Dec 8, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 113 | 113 | 04 | 1 | 439 |
| NSH | 016 | 114 | 210 | 04 | 0 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 14:37VGKJames NealAssists: Luca Sbisa, Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 15:40NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Pontus Aberg, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 8:04NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Kevin Fiala, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 14:56NSHNick BoninoAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 19:20VGKErik HaulaAssists: Colin Miller, David Perron · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
- 2. VGK James Neal stopped
- 3. NSH Kevin Fiala stopped
- 4. VGK Alex Tuch stopped
- 5. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 6. VGK David Perron stopped
- 7. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 8. VGK Erik Haula stopped
- 9. NSH Viktor Arvidsson stopped
- 10. VGK William Karlsson stopped
- 11. NSH Nick Bonino stopped
- 12. VGK Reilly Smith scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:31NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:48VGKDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P1 13:00VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:44NSHAnthony Bitetto: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00NSHKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:35VGKColin Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:54VGKCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:55VGKWilliam Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:55NSHP.K. Subban: Embellishment2 min
- P3 15:26NSHKevin Fiala: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestLindberg – Bellemare – Nosek6:34
xG 0.32–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:50
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch7:37
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Neal – Perron – Haula11:19
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miller12:00
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Schmidt15:14
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
- Engelland – Theodore12:03
xG 0.24–0.59 (29%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala8:23
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- McLeod – Watson – Gaudreau4:08
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bonino – Sissons – Arvidsson8:40
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Aberg – Forsberg9:04
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Subban13:12
xG 1.04–0.27 (79%)attempts 22–7goals 3–0
- Josi – Ekholm16:41
xG 0.44–0.77 (37%)attempts 20–18goals 0–1
- Weber – Bitetto9:31
xG 0.14–0.62 (19%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).