Sat, Dec 9, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 014 | 113 | 131 |
| BOS | 011 | 112 | 210 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:51BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 6:45BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 16:52NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.00 xG1–2
- P3 19:18BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:19BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:03NYICasey Cizikas: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:03BOSJake DeBrusk: Instigator2 min
- P2 4:03BOSJake DeBrusk: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:03BOSJake DeBrusk: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:10NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 0:26BOSBrad Marchand: Interference5 min
- P3 0:26NYIRyan Pulock: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:14NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:47BOSDavid Backes: Head butting5 min
- P3 11:47NYIAndrew Ladd: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:47BOSDavid Backes: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Eberle – Barzal10:01
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Nelson – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier6:36
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas6:09
xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee10:47
xG 0.32–0.70 (31%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Pelech14:33
xG 0.84–0.41 (67%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pulock14:17
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hickey11:15
xG 0.18–1.13 (14%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Nash – Heinen9:59
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:35
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Krejci – Bjork – DeBrusk5:03
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Krejci – Kuraly – Schaller2:06
xG 0.01–0.13 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy12:42
xG 0.89–0.44 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Krug – Carlo12:41
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk12:42
xG 0.41–0.85 (32%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).