Sat, Dec 9, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Edmonton Oilers 6, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 217 | 213 | 640 |
| MTL | 08 | 18 | 18 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46EDMMichael CammalleriAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:37EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: Ryan Strome · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 1:11EDMJujhar KhairaGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P2 2:24EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–0
- P2 13:44MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 2:39EDMOscar KlefbomPPAssists: Mark Letestu, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 3:09EDMYohann AuvituAssists: Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–1
- P3 15:58MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Byron Froese, Daniel Carr · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:29EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P2 1:35MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:06MTLAndrew Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:06EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:29EDMBrandon Davidson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:13MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:33MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:20MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:06EDMPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:12
xG 1.31–0.25 (84%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins9:17
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Strome – Khaira – Draisaitl9:10
xG 0.41–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Walker8:35
xG 0.29–0.39 (42%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Benning15:26
xG 1.03–0.44 (70%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Davidson – Auvitu11:32
xG 0.81–0.48 (63%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Russell – Nurse16:39
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 13–21goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Deslauriers – Froese – Carr10:27
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Danault – Hudon3:25
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon9:07
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Byron – Pacioretty – Danault7:47
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schlemko – Jerabek14:02
xG 0.38–0.69 (35%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Weber – Benn14:49
xG 0.46–1.01 (31%)attempts 18–15goals 0–3
- Petry – Alzner16:11
xG 0.25–0.99 (20%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).