Sat, Dec 9, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 6, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 14 | 36 | 212 | 622 |
| DET | 011 | 09 | 19 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:50STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Alexander Steen, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P2 4:07STLVladimir SobotkaGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 6:17STLScottie UpshallUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 16:26STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Sammy Blais · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–0
- P3 7:18DETFrans NielsenAssists: Luke Glendening, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–1
- P3 9:00STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–1
- P3 19:17STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.36 xG6–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:12STLSammy Blais: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:03STLCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:13DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 1:05STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:19DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 15:56DETTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Schenn – Schwartz3:33
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Jaskin6:24
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
- Steen – Schenn – Jaskin3:48
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Berglund – Schenn2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko13:34
xG 0.89–0.51 (64%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:04
xG 0.61–0.37 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Parayko – Dunn2:11
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Helm – Glendening11:01
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Tatar – Mantha – Larkin8:35
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Frk – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi7:10
xG 0.31–0.50 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist9:57
xG 0.00–0.57 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Ericsson13:41
xG 1.20–1.02 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 1–4
- Kronwall – Jensen10:54
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Daley2:03
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).