Sat, Dec 9, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Colorado Avalanche 7, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 29 | 47 | 730 |
| FLA | 19 | 113 | 120 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:56COLMikko RantanenAssists: Mark Barberio, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 19:57FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 4:51FLADenis MalginAssists: Jamie McGinn, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 11:26COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: J.T. Compher, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 12:07COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 11:59COLErik JohnsonGWGAssists: Matt Nieto · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 13:42COLColin WilsonAssists: J.T. Compher, Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 14:15FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–3
- P3 15:59COLMatt NietoENAssists: Blake Comeau, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.73 xG6–3
- P3 17:40COLCarl SoderbergENAssists: Blake Comeau, Matt Nieto · Slap, 0.70 xG7–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:57FLAMike Matheson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:24FLAAaron Ekblad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:17COLTyson Barrie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:07COLJ.T. Compher: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:26COLTyson Barrie: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 19:43FLAColton Sceviour: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:57COLPatrik Nemeth: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Nieto7:39
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Wilson – Compher – Jost3:07
xG 0.04–0.04 (46%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:42
xG 0.19–0.33 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Compher3:58
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nemeth9:26
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard3:46
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Barberio – Lindholm9:50
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – McCann – Malgin7:59
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:13
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Sceviour – Hunt9:07
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Haley – Brickley6:58
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 3–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad12:10
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Petrovic – McCoshen14:11
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Matheson11:59
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).