Sat, Dec 9, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 114 | 315 | 110 | 539 |
| DAL | 115 | 18 | 116 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13VGKAlex TuchAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:28DALTyler PitlickAssists: Antoine Roussel, Radek Faksa · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:58VGKDavid PerronPPAssists: James Neal · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 5:25DALJason SpezzaAssists: Mattias Janmark, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 6:10VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 8:35VGKBrayden McNabbGWGAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 4:16DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:17VGKErik HaulaENAssists: David Perron · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:25VGKBrendan Leipsic: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:06VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:14DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:44DALStephen Johns: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:53VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Leipsic – Tuch6:39
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:38
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Bellemare – Nosek7:19
xG 0.03–0.18 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula12:43
xG 0.45–0.75 (38%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – McNabb4:06
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Engelland – Hunt8:58
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Schmidt14:52
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Radulov – Janmark12:05
xG 0.87–0.56 (61%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa10:01
xG 0.47–0.23 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Smith – Elie5:25
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Shore9:58
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:30
xG 0.97–0.50 (66%)attempts 23–13goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Klingberg2:32
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn14:45
xG 0.63–0.73 (46%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).