Sat, Dec 9, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 17 | 05 | 224 |
| CGY | 116 | 08 | 311 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02VANJake VirtanenAssists: Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 18:28CGYTroy BrouwerAssists: Curtis Lazar · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 19:05VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Markus Granlund, Daniel Sedin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 11:34CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Mikael Backlund · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 18:50CGYSam BennettAssists: Mark Jankowski, Garnet Hathaway · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 19:36CGYMatthew TkachukENGWGAssists: Michael Frolik, Travis Hamonic · Backhand, 0.59 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:43VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:39CGYMicheal Ferland: Interference2 min
- P1 14:49VANNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P2 1:21VANLoui Eriksson: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:05CGYMike Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:46CGYGarnet Hathaway: Holding2 min
- P2 18:27CGYMark Giordano: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 19:54VANBrendan Gaunce: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestChaput – Gaunce – Virtanen10:41
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Gagner – Baertschi – Boeser2:54
xG 0.20–0.13 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson10:22
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Vanek – Gagner – Boeser3:20
xG 0.01–0.07 (13%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Edler – Tanev17:03
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
- Hutton – Stecher13:14
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Pouliot11:07
xG 0.24–1.05 (18%)attempts 5–14goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:17
xG 1.02–0.16 (87%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett10:37
xG 0.81–0.11 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Lazar5:43
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:09
xG 0.14–0.30 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton19:21
xG 0.95–0.41 (70%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie12:12
xG 0.63–0.24 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Brodie2:38
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).