Sat, Dec 9, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 0, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 08 | 011 | 025 |
| SJS | 116 | 215 | 219 | 550 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:55SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Kevin Labanc, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:31SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Tim Heed, Kevin Labanc · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 14:41SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.22 xG0–3
- P3 3:24SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 17:38SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Brent Burns, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:59OTTDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P1 17:05SJSJoel Ward: Holding2 min
- P2 3:26OTTJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:11SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:02OTTBobby Ryan: Holding2 min
- P2 15:15OTTAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:21OTTRyan Dzingel: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:21OTTRyan Dzingel: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:21SJSMarcus Sorensen: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:04SJSJustin Braun: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:03OTTJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:01SJSJannik Hansen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:51OTTAlexandre Burrows: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 14:51OTTAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:51OTTAlexandre Burrows: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:51SJSDylan DeMelo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Smith – Stone2:20
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Ryan – Duchene – Stone3:04
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Pyatt2:09
xG 0.02–0.09 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel6:40
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Harpur6:24
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Harpur2:37
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Chabot4:24
xG 0.15–0.17 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWard – Tierney – Meier8:18
xG 0.98–0.08 (93%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Hansen – Sorensen – Carpenter6:44
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson7:36
xG 0.34–0.08 (80%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Couture – Hertl – Labanc7:04
xG 0.19–0.59 (25%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeed – DeMelo6:04
xG 0.90–0.14 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon12:40
xG 0.79–0.34 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Braun – Dillon2:50
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).