Sat, Dec 9, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 09 | 214 | 02 | 234 |
| LAK | 07 | 27 | 05 | 12 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:27LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Anze Kopitar, Tanner Pearson · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:16LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Christian Folin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 13:03CARVictor RaskPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 17:38CARElias LindholmAssists: Derek Ryan, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- OT 4:40LAKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Jonathan Quick · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:22LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:54CARHaydn Fleury: Holding2 min
- P3 5:12LAKDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:26LAKTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – McGinn – Lindholm12:04
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris7:34
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Skinner – Ryan14:13
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho12:42
xG 0.54–0.78 (41%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce19:40
xG 0.98–0.32 (75%)attempts 20–14goals 0–2
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin14:49
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fleury14:44
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Toffoli – Pearson6:53
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Brown – Shore – Iafallo3:52
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Mitchell – Brodzinski7:16
xG 0.41–0.43 (48%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Shore – Pearson2:31
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty18:50
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Martinez – Forbort3:58
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Forbort – Folin12:53
xG 0.35–0.91 (28%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).