Sun, Dec 10, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 019 | 016 | 041 |
| TOR | 111 | 07 | 05 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34TORZach HymanGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:07TORMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P2 8:29EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:11EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:38TORRoman Polak: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:38TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:48TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Khaira – Draisaitl10:54
xG 0.64–0.12 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:19
xG 0.92–0.41 (69%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins10:28
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Caggiula7:22
xG 0.16–0.20 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse15:21
xG 1.30–0.60 (68%)attempts 23–9goals 0–1
- Klefbom – Benning13:46
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Davidson – Auvitu12:12
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Martin – Leivo8:08
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Nylander10:42
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:40
xG 0.37–0.69 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri12:48
xG 0.32–0.93 (26%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly2:41
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner2:35
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev13:16
xG 0.85–0.91 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).