Sun, Dec 10, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 18 | 07 | 12 | 424 |
| SJS | 010 | 19 | 214 | 01 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19MINRyan MurphyPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 10:27MINEric StaalAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 4:58MINEric StaalAssists: Ryan Murphy, Mikael Granlund · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 19:07SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 2:41SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 14:59SJSTomas HertlAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Tim Heed · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- OT 3:26MINNino NiederreiterGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:07SJSMelker Karlsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:09MINMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
- P1 17:54MINRyan Murphy: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 8:04MINGustav Olofsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:40MINJason Zucker: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:16SJSRyan Carpenter: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:13SJSDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:14MINRyan Murphy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:14MINEric Staal: Holding2 min
- P3 2:00MINGustav Olofsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Granlund – Niederreiter11:07
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 10–18goals 2–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Eriksson Ek7:46
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Coyle9:50
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Mitchell9:46
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Olofsson8:52
xG 0.51–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Brodin – Murphy14:34
xG 0.77–0.47 (62%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba17:48
xG 0.75–1.10 (40%)attempts 16–22goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Labanc6:36
xG 0.54–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson12:24
xG 0.72–0.72 (50%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Ward – Tierney – Karlsson2:08
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ward – Tierney – Meier7:51
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Heed2:03
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Heed – DeMelo9:08
xG 0.60–0.46 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun15:40
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).