Mon, Dec 11, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Washington Capitals 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 015 | 110 | 132 |
| NYI | 110 | 210 | 09 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 0:36NYIAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 1:34NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 8:23WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Jay Beagle · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:17WSHLars Eller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:22NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:29WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:01WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:00NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson2:08
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson6:06
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Kuznetsov – Vrana3:59
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky6:38
xG 0.20–0.37 (34%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Djoos11:22
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Orlov – Bowey2:57
xG 0.03–0.20 (14%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bowey12:28
xG 0.58–0.77 (43%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee10:26
xG 1.22–0.42 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal9:25
xG 0.97–0.37 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas8:48
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nelson – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier9:36
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Pelech15:13
xG 1.03–0.31 (77%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Leddy – Mayfield15:40
xG 1.36–0.69 (66%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Pulock12:54
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).