Mon, Dec 11, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 06 | 115 | 230 |
| ANA | 14 | 18 | 111 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Jeff Skinner · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:55ANADerek GrantAssists: Logan Shaw · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 19:25ANAJakob SilfverbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 1:52ANALogan ShawGWGAssists: Andy Welinski, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:20CARVictor RaskAssists: Jeff Skinner, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:42ANACam Fowler: Holding2 min
- P1 16:04ANAOndrej Kase: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:25CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P2 14:40CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:56ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Skinner – Ryan9:58
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Williams – Skinner – Rask3:01
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Rask – McGinn – Lindholm6:31
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho10:58
xG 0.23–0.28 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin10:52
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Faulk – Hanifin3:11
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin4:54
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Henrique – Silfverberg13:24
xG 0.81–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Grant – Shaw – Rasmussen2:57
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell3:39
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Vermette – Wagner – Shaw6:19
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Welinski11:55
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Fowler – Manson15:32
xG 0.60–0.63 (49%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Montour14:37
xG 0.60–0.93 (39%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).