Tue, Dec 12, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 17 | 09 | 222 |
| PHI | 17 | 014 | 318 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:21PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:48TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Zach Hyman, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 16:50TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 5:36PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Scott Laughton, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 17:05PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:44PHIScott LaughtonENAssists: Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 10:40TORRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:11PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Hyman – Brown12:01
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:18
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander15:25
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Moore – Martin – Leivo7:40
xG 0.33–0.58 (36%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev19:05
xG 0.62–0.54 (54%)attempts 15–21goals 0–2
- Polak – Borgman12:15
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Polak – Gardiner2:17
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Leier – Konecny7:14
xG 0.58–0.02 (96%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl14:32
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Couturier15:04
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- Weise – Weal – Patrick9:17
xG 0.46–0.49 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Hagg16:58
xG 0.88–0.50 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Gudas – Sanheim13:10
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Provorov18:45
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).