Tue, Dec 12, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 1, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 110 | 04 | 03 | 1 | 127 |
| MIN | 14 | 010 | 07 | 01 | 2 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:24MINMatt CullenAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 18:57CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Charlie Coyle stopped
- 2. CGY Johnny Gaudreau scored
- 3. MIN Chris Stewart scored
- 4. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 5. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 6. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 7. MIN Eric Staal stopped
- 8. CGY Sam Bennett stopped
- 9. MIN Mikael Granlund scored
- 10. CGY Micheal Ferland stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:02MINMarcus Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:07MINRyan Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:08CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:01CGYTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:31MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Brouwer – Lazar9:15
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett9:28
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:53
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:42
xG 0.29–0.27 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kulak13:02
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton16:16
xG 0.30–0.20 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Brodie15:20
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Foligno – Mitchell8:58
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund2:34
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter3:05
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Coyle9:30
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba21:43
xG 0.43–0.28 (61%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Prosser – Olofsson10:59
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Brodin – Murphy13:09
xG 0.06–0.39 (13%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).