Tue, Dec 12, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 117 | 18 | 03 | 237 |
| CHI | 19 | 05 | 112 | 12 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:49CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 11:12FLANick BjugstadAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Mark Pysyk · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 3:53FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 13:58CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brandon Saad, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 2:24CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:43FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:08CHIVinnie Hinostroza: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:24FLAAlexander Petrovic: Interference2 min
- P2 16:29CHIJohn Hayden: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:27FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:07FLAJared McCann: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:07CHITommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:07FLAJames Reimer: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:07CHITommy Wingels: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley3:19
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Brickley – McCann3:11
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- McGinn – Dadonov – Trocheck5:06
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Huberdeau – Barkov11:17
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Weegar11:00
xG 1.05–0.11 (91%)attempts 22–4goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Matheson17:16
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad17:37
xG 0.10–1.16 (8%)attempts 6–29goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Saad – DeBrincat12:54
xG 0.72–0.19 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Schmaltz13:24
xG 0.72–0.65 (53%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Bouma – Wingels – Hayden5:04
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sharp – Hinostroza – Hartman8:44
xG 0.21–0.62 (25%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Oesterle13:06
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Oesterle2:47
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Murphy – Forsling2:25
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).