Tue, Dec 12, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 19 | 015 | 02 | 2 | 337 |
| VGK | 06 | 210 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:25CARMarcus KrugerUnassisted · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 1:07VGKDeryk EngellandAssists: David Perron, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 4:38CARTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 12:48VGKReilly SmithAssists: Colin Miller, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Brock McGinn scored
- 2. VGK Alex Tuch stopped
- 3. VGK David Perron stopped
- 4. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 5. CAR Phillip Di Giuseppe scored
- 6. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 7. CAR Justin Faulk stopped
- 8. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 9. VGK Reilly Smith scored
- 10. VGK Erik Haula stopped
Penalties (7)
- P2 5:05VGKErik Haula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:27CARVictor Rask: Holding2 min
- P2 14:30CARJaccob Slavin: Interference2 min
- P3 2:17VGKColin Miller: Interference2 min
- P3 5:22CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:22VGKDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:22VGKDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Skinner – Ryan11:07
xG 1.01–0.31 (76%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe9:02
xG 0.58–0.08 (87%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho10:38
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Rask – McGinn – Lindholm10:14
xG 0.10–0.59 (14%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin13:49
xG 1.21–0.11 (91%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Slavin – Pesce15:38
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Pesce – Hanifin2:29
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestLindberg – Bellemare – Nosek6:19
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch8:10
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:04
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Neal – Perron – Haula10:45
xG 0.40–0.82 (32%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Theodore13:30
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- McNabb – Miller16:41
xG 0.70–0.97 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Sbisa – Schmidt15:48
xG 0.22–0.52 (29%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).