Wed, Dec 13, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Rangers 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 111 | 110 | 229 |
| OTT | 18 | 112 | 110 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01OTTBobby RyanAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 3:57NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 15:08OTTCody CeciAssists: Matt Duchene, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 0:08OTTZack SmithGWGAssists: Tom Pyatt · Snap, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 4:40NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Chris Kreider, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:25OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min
- P1 19:24NYRBoo Nieves: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:52NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Zuccarello – Miller13:26
xG 1.04–0.36 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Carey – Vesey – Nieves10:17
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Kreider – Buchnevich11:27
xG 0.12–0.14 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Nash – Hayes – Fast10:48
xG 0.18–0.49 (26%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Smith12:54
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Staal – McDonagh2:04
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Holden18:22
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 13–21goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hoffman – Dzingel9:38
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Thompson – Dumont – Paul6:28
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Duchene – Stone12:25
xG 0.43–0.50 (46%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau11:22
xG 0.37–0.69 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestClaesson – Ceci9:03
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Claesson – Chabot2:27
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson4:44
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).