Wed, Dec 13, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Dallas Stars 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 214 | 210 | 13 | 527 |
| NYI | 015 | 05 | 214 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:37DALTyler PitlickAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 15:46DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Jason Spezza, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 1:01DALRemi ElieGWGAssists: Devin Shore, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–0
- P2 9:21DALJamie BennAssists: Julius Honka · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–0
- P3 0:21DALTyler PitlickAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–0
- P3 1:06NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–1
- P3 16:28NYIAnders LeePPAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.39 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:07NYIScott Mayfield: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:25DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:15NYIJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:15DALKari Lehtonen: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:51DALRemi Elie: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Radulov – Janmark9:44
xG 0.54–0.33 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Shore2:23
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Ritchie – Smith7:54
xG 0.44–0.43 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Pitlick – Faksa10:19
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:12
xG 0.61–0.47 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Johns – Honka9:36
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Johns – Lindell2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Eberle – Barzal11:46
xG 0.68–0.38 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Beauvillier4:42
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Nelson – Ho-Sang4:53
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:36
xG 0.68–0.59 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Mayfield5:41
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock4:24
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- de Haan – Pelech11:56
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).