Wed, Dec 13, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 7, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 216 | 215 | 317 | 748 |
| VAN | 06 | 113 | 07 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33NSHP.K. SubbanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 14:38NSHViktor ArvidssonSHGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 3:05NSHP.K. SubbanUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 5:01VANAlexander BurmistrovPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 6:00NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Craig Smith, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 8:48NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 11:57NSHKevin FialaAssists: Kyle Turris, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.34 xG6–1
- P3 12:37NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG7–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:15NSHKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:45VANTroy Stecher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:43NSHCraig Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 0:56VANJake Virtanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:24NSHMatt Irwin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:55VANMarkus Granlund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:48VANJake Virtanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:48NSHP.K. Subban: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:48NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:48VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:48NSHScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:48VANJake Virtanen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:10NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala11:12
xG 1.05–0.34 (76%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Bonino – Johansen – Arvidsson8:24
xG 0.70–0.16 (82%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Watson – Sissons6:41
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Aberg – Forsberg9:34
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin11:54
xG 1.16–0.22 (84%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Josi – Ekholm15:49
xG 1.20–0.33 (79%)attempts 25–9goals 2–0
- Emelin – Subban15:14
xG 0.87–0.69 (56%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Sedin – Sedin – Boeser12:42
xG 0.64–0.76 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Chaput – Gaunce – Virtanen6:18
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Vanek – Gagner – Burmistrov6:57
xG 0.11–0.45 (19%)attempts 1–11goals 0–1
- Eriksson – Granlund – Goldobin10:04
xG 0.43–0.97 (30%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Pouliot15:20
xG 0.82–0.78 (51%)attempts 13–18goals 0–2
- Hutton – Stecher3:46
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hutton9:40
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).