Thu, Dec 14, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 312 | 19 | 425 |
| CBJ | 316 | 210 | 19 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:23CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P1 15:52CBJPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.55 xG0–3
- P2 5:00NYIJosh BaileyAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 7:49NYICasey CizikasAssists: Scott Mayfield, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 13:52NYIJosh BaileyAssists: John Tavares, Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 15:03CBJSeth JonesAssists: Cam Atkinson, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P2 17:52CBJNick FolignoGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 7:11NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 19:59CBJJosh AndersonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:57CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:49NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:27NYINick Leddy: Interference2 min
- P2 9:04CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:07CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:39CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee11:56
xG 0.94–0.62 (60%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal12:29
xG 0.84–0.60 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Cizikas – Nelson – Ho-Sang4:18
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Nelson5:08
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:45
xG 1.26–0.76 (62%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Leddy – Pelech2:09
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- de Haan – Mayfield14:49
xG 0.88–0.93 (49%)attempts 21–18goals 2–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Panarin – Dubois13:03
xG 1.03–0.57 (64%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Atkinson – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg12:06
xG 0.77–0.79 (49%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Schroeder – Sedlak – Motte5:00
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Foligno – Calvert – Jenner11:37
xG 0.43–0.88 (33%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski18:09
xG 1.46–1.20 (55%)attempts 24–24goals 2–3
- Johnson – Nutivaara15:48
xG 0.70–0.58 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Savard – Harrington14:00
xG 0.53–1.05 (34%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).