Thu, Dec 14, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 03 | 17 | 28 | 318 |
| STL | 06 | 013 | 111 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:11ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Rickard Rakell, Andy Welinski · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 5:43ANAKevin RoyGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P3 8:28ANAKevin RoyAssists: Derek Grant, Logan Shaw · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 14:07STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:03STLJordan Schmaltz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 3:40ANARickard Rakell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:26ANAAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:49ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:32ANABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Silfverberg – Roy12:06
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Henrique – Rakell11:09
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Vermette – Blandisi – Kase10:23
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Grant – Wagner – Shaw4:35
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson14:37
xG 1.01–0.45 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Montour16:30
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Welinski13:38
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Berglund – Barbashev4:40
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Schenn – Jaskin7:40
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Schenn – Tarasenko6:05
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Brodziak – Paajarvi2:17
xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Bortuzzo14:17
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Dunn11:44
xG 0.33–0.33 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Edmundson – Parayko15:15
xG 0.25–1.28 (16%)attempts 10–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).