Thu, Dec 14, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 07 | 016 | 028 |
| MIN | 17 | 012 | 17 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:06MINTyler EnnisGWGAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 8:06MINMikael GranlundAssists: Eric Staal, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:44MINZack Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:43MINMikko Koivu: Elbowing2 min
- P2 2:39TORJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:56MINMatt Cullen: Interference2 min
- P3 14:26MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:27MINJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:27TORJosh Leivo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown8:17
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Moore – Martin – Leivo5:29
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Hyman – Marner11:19
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander11:53
xG 0.26–0.51 (33%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Borgman11:09
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Zaitsev2:44
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly13:04
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Stewart – Ennis7:28
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Zucker – Mitchell10:13
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Cullen – Coyle – Eriksson Ek9:44
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
- Koivu – Granlund – Niederreiter11:44
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba17:26
xG 0.83–0.59 (59%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Brodin – Murphy15:44
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Prosser – Reilly11:04
xG 0.06–0.46 (11%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).