Thu, Dec 14, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Florida Panthers 1, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 18 | 013 | 133 |
| COL | 016 | 13 | 111 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:15COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Tyson Barrie, Tyson Jost · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 10:27FLAAleksander BarkovSHAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 6:44COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Mark Barberio, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:56FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:37FLAMicheal Haley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:29FLAVincent Trocheck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:57COLBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley5:54
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Brickley – McCann7:47
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov2:43
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Barkov2:23
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Weegar12:15
xG 0.62–0.40 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Pysyk – Matheson15:53
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:59
xG 0.29–0.55 (35%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:01
xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Wilson – Andrighetto – MacKinnon2:30
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto11:07
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Wilson – Andrighetto – Compher5:09
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Lindholm9:50
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Zadorov12:47
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Nemeth2:22
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).