Thu, Dec 14, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 4, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 49 | 010 | 423 |
| EDM | 022 | 011 | 013 | 046 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:56NSHPontus AbergGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Calle Jarnkrok · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 8:16NSHKevin FialaPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.28 xG2–0
- P2 14:49NSHKyle TurrisAssists: Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 17:25NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.20 xG4–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:42NSHViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:15NSHAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00EDMRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00NSHP.K. Subban: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:50EDMOscar Klefbom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:25EDMMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:00EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:26NSHAlexei Emelin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Aberg – Forsberg11:09
xG 0.92–0.50 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala9:26
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Watson – Sissons10:18
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Bonino – Johansen – Arvidsson12:57
xG 0.33–0.48 (40%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Subban16:17
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm16:19
xG 0.89–0.83 (52%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Weber – Bitetto12:00
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi13:36
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins11:14
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Slepyshev8:06
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Strome – Khaira – Draisaitl11:02
xG 0.19–0.77 (20%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Auvitu13:27
xG 0.81–0.46 (64%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse16:50
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Benning13:41
xG 0.27–1.07 (20%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).