Fri, Dec 15, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 115 | 39 | 13 | 534 |
| BUF | 012 | 114 | 313 | 02 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:16CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Brock McGinn, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 10:46BUFJack EichelAssists: Evander Kane, Jake McCabe · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 1:20BUFJake McCabeAssists: Evander Kane, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 3:00CARJordan StaalAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- P3 4:03CARDerek RyanAssists: Brett Pesce · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 6:57CARElias LindholmAssists: Derek Ryan, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 9:24BUFJack EichelAssists: Jake McCabe, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 9:34BUFJack EichelAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 2:15CARJaccob SlavinGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:50BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:24CARJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:20CARBrock McGinn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:15BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:15CARJeff Skinner: Embellishment2 min
- P1 0:00BUFNathan Beaulieu: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Staal – McGinn12:08
xG 1.01–0.40 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Skinner – Rask – Teravainen5:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Lindholm – Ryan6:00
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Aho – Ryan3:17
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce17:35
xG 1.06–0.57 (65%)attempts 19–20goals 3–2
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin10:14
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Faulk – Hanifin3:37
xG 0.17–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Kane – Eichel10:55
xG 0.86–0.31 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 3–2
- Pouliot – Reinhart – Rodrigues8:08
xG 0.35–0.19 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Girgensons13:30
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Larsson – Wilson – Fasching5:45
xG 0.03–0.41 (6%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Antipin13:55
xG 0.90–0.65 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 3–1
- Bogosian – McCabe2:06
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Scandella – Ristolainen19:32
xG 0.92–0.95 (49%)attempts 22–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).