Fri, Dec 15, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Dallas Stars 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 15 | 013 | 230 |
| NJD | 29 | 19 | 28 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28NJDSteven SantiniAssists: Brian Gibbons · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:42DALMartin HanzalPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 19:06NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Andy Greene, Brian Gibbons · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 8:09DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Mattias Janmark, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 16:39NJDBrian BoylePPGWGAssists: Will Butcher, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–3
- P3 12:57NJDNick LappinAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.37 xG2–4
- P3 18:00NJDBrian BoyleENUnassisted · Snap, 0.50 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:29DALTyler Pitlick: Interference2 min
- P1 5:00NJDSteven Santini: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 10:56DALJohn Klingberg: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:48DALStephen Johns: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 16:39DALGreg Pateryn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:39NJDBrian Boyle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:39NJDBrian Boyle: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:05DALJulius Honka: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00NJDPavel Zacha: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:07NJDJohn Moore: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:52DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Pitlick – Faksa6:17
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Shore3:27
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Roussel – Ritchie4:15
xG 0.16–0.11 (61%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa2:35
xG 0.05–0.01 (77%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:21
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Pateryn12:47
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Johns – Honka9:47
xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Hayes – Lappin6:47
xG 0.58–0.08 (88%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Zajac – Gibbons – Coleman8:48
xG 0.62–0.57 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
- Stafford – Bratt – Hischier7:56
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Noesen – Wood – Zacha8:35
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson2:26
xG 0.42–0.02 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Greene – Santini11:12
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Severson – Butcher10:37
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).