Sat, Dec 16, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 013 | 210 | 16 | 329 |
| MIN | 010 | 112 | 19 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:15EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsSHAssists: Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 13:18MINMathew DumbaAssists: Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 16:37EDMMilan LucicAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 8:32EDMJesse PuljujarviGWGAssists: Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–1
- P3 15:00MINMathew DumbaAssists: Chris Stewart, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:15EDMMichael Cammalleri: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:04MINCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:46EDMMatt Benning: Holding2 min
- P1 19:55MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:44MINEric Staal: Holding2 min
- P2 7:51EDMDrake Caggiula: Interference2 min
- P2 14:19MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:28EDMPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:44MINTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:57MINJason Zucker: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi8:57
xG 0.78–0.31 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Strome – Khaira – Draisaitl8:52
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Caggiula6:09
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins9:59
xG 0.06–0.29 (18%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Benning14:00
xG 0.79–0.47 (63%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Russell – Nurse13:58
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Davidson – Auvitu9:44
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Coyle6:56
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Granlund – Niederreiter6:15
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund3:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Winnik – Stewart – Ennis8:13
xG 0.16–0.20 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brodin – Murphy13:18
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Prosser – Reilly9:21
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba13:49
xG 0.37–0.90 (29%)attempts 16–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).