Sat, Dec 16, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 06 | 07 | 04 | 128 |
| PHI | 09 | 110 | 07 | 14 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13DALGemel SmithAssists: Remi Elie, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 9:10PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- OT 3:50PHIShayne GostisbeherePPGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:38DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:38PHIClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:30DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:00PHISean Couturier: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:13DALDevin Shore: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:35PHIValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:38DALTyler Pitlick: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:59DALGemel Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:35DALAlexander Radulov: High sticking2 min
- OT 3:28DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Pitlick – Faksa9:26
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Shore8:22
xG 0.20–0.20 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Radulov – Janmark11:17
xG 0.06–0.24 (20%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Smith – Elie6:11
xG 0.13–0.62 (17%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Johns – Honka9:59
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell16:50
xG 0.54–0.67 (44%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn14:54
xG 0.27–0.54 (33%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Couturier11:17
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Laughton – Leier – Konecny7:33
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Weise – Weal – Patrick8:24
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Raffl12:25
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Hagg12:13
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Gudas – Sanheim13:46
xG 0.74–0.46 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Provorov15:48
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).